Early tracking numbers are estimating thatRyan Coogler’sBlack Pantheris going to enjoy a Presidents' Day Weekend opening box office between $100 million and $120 million. That sounds impressive, but I’m of the opinion that it’s an underestimation. Sure, this is early tracking based on facts, figures, and available data, but sometimes you have to go with your gut. Even at $120 million for an opening weekend, that would putBlack PantherbetweenSpider-Man: HomecomingandThor: Ragnarok. With nothing but respect to those films, I thinkBlack Pantherwill perform much better than that.
THRreports that pre-release surveys suggest a domestic debut north of $100 million, topping out at $120 million, as the first superhero tentpole of 2018. Their comparison toDoctor Strange’s $85 million debut is a … strange one, especially considering that theBenedict Cumberbatch-starring picture was an origin story that didn’t have a character previously introduced and established in a prior MCU film.Black Pantherhas that advantage sinceChadwick Bosemanintroduced the character exceptionally well inCaptain America: Civil War, and anticipation for his solo outing has been building ever since.
Black Pantheralso has the added benefit of recognizable names both behind and in front of the cameras. Coogler’s name still carries the success ofCreed, even if the general moviegoing public doesn’t also count the excellentFruitvale Stationto his credit. And even ifCreedfans don’t know Coogler’s name, they probably knowMichael B. Jordan; theBlack Panthercollaboration is the third for the duo, but the first to put Jordan on the antagonistic side of things. Then there are the Oscar-winnersLupita Nyong’oandForest Whitaker, with the Oscar-nominatedAngela Bassettand Golden Globes-nominatedAndy SerkisandMartin Freemanalso starring, not to mention the awards-worthyDanai GuriraandLetitia Wright.
Oh and behind the scenes are Oscar-nominated cinematographer and Coogler-collaboratorRachel Morrison, Oscar-nominated costume designerRuth E. Carter, and Emmy-nominated production designer/Coogler-collaboratorHannah Beachler. I don’t expect general audience members to know their names, but their veteran experience and work ethic shows through in every single frame of the film; that quality permeates the rest of the movie. Expect those tracking numbers to go up, up, up as we get closer to the February 16th release date, especially once early reviews start to make their way online (as long as they’re positive, of course). How high can it go? The sky’s the limit, but we’re banking on something closer toGuardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’s $146.5 million debut as a low estimate based on nothing but pure gut feeling and hope.
But be sure to let us know your anticipation level forBlack Pantherin the comments below!
For much more of our coverage onBlack Panther, be sure to check out these recent write-ups and keep an eye out for much more to come:
