At long, long last, this year’s Oscar season is finally almost over. I will tell you as someone who’s been doing this professionally for some time now, this year feels different. The race began the same way all races begin back in September, but as we grew closer to the big day, you could feel a sea change in the way people predict the Oscars. TheMoonlightupset had everyone shook, and the transformation of the Academy’s membership into one that skews younger and more diverse means hard and fast statistics may not hold up that well anymore.
So while I still did my due diligence and checked the stats, looked at the precursor awards, and got a feel for the mood during the voting period, this year I used my gut more than ever before. This could very well blow up in my face, but after going the “safe” route last year only to see my ballot get decimated, it’s time to switch things up.
Below, finally, I offer my final Oscar predictions for the 90th Academy Awards. I did my best to explain my reasoning and offer alternatives for those looking for some guidance on their ballots. And as always I included what I think should win and should have been nominated for almost all the categories.
So let’s have some fun. The Oscars will be broadcast live on Sunday, March 4th on ABC. Check back here on Monday morning for my postmortem of the ceremony. Fingers crossed.
Best Picture
Call Me by Your Name
Darkest Hour
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
It’s rare that when it comes time to make final Oscar predictions, Best Picture is one of the most unpredictable categories. But given what happened last year withMoonlightnot only winning unexpectedly, but in the face of overwhelming Oscar stats stacked against it, all bets are off.
By my estimation there are three viable options for what could win on Sunday.The Shape of Wateris the safest pick. It won the Producers Guild Award and the DGA Award, and it holds the most nominations of any film and is clearly beloved in the crafts categories.Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouriis the next safest pick. It scored a lot of nominations for a contemporary drama, and it won both the SAG Award for Best Ensemble and Best Picture at the BAFTAs. And then there’sGet Out, the spoiler. It’s been underestimated the entire way, but it’s a film that’s been beloved by many, and Universal Pictures has goneall outwith its Phase 2 awards campaign.
Shapevery well could win, and if you’re playing it safe it’s probably best to go with that. It’s also a pretty deserving winner! But the lack of even a nomination for Best Ensemble at the SAGs has me worried it doesn’t have as much support as we think.Three BillboardsI imagine will suffer from the preferential ballot. There are a lot of folks who love this movie, but depending on who you ask, there are also a significant amount of people who might be putting it dead last on their ballot.
Indeed, it’s all about the preferential ballot.Get Outhas a lot of folks who love it, some folks who like it, but not many that seem to hate it. When it comes to the preferential ballot, films that are “well-liked” do better than films that are divisive.The Shape of Waterfits that bill, but for some reason it feels like the traditional or safe pick. I went that way last year, going so far as to say I’d eat my hat ifLa La Landlost. This year I don’t want to eat any hats, so I’m going out on a bit of a limb and sayingGet Outtakes it. Could I be wrong? Absolutely. But let’s live a little.
Will Win:Get Out
Could Win:The Shape of Water
Should Win:Get Out
Should Have Been Nominated:The Florida Project
Best Director
Christopher Nolan –Dunkirk
Jordan Peele –Get Out
Greta Gerwig –Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson –Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro –The Shape of Water
This one has been pretty sewn up for a while now, which is a refrain you’ll hear over these next couple of categories. Four out of the last five years Best Picture and Director have been split between two different films, and I’m predicting the same come Oscar night. With a DGA and BAFTA in hand and copious awards over the rest of the season,Guillermo del Toroshould rightfully take the stage Sunday night for his stunning work onThe Shape of Water, completing the trifecta of the “Three Amigos”—a trio of Mexican directors who grew up and collaborated together—winning the Best Director Oscar as he follows in the footsteps of friendsAlejandro G. Iñarritu(Birdman,The Revenant) andAlfonso Cuaron(Gravity). If there’s a shocker, though, it’s ever-so-slightly possibleJordan Peelecould surprise.
Will Win:Guillermo del Toro
Could Win:Christopher Nolan
Should Win:Guillermo del Toro
Should Have Been Nominated:Luca Guadagnino –Call Me by Your Name
Best Actress
Sally Hawkins –The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand –Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie –I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan –Lady Bird
Meryl Streep –The Post
While the Best Actress race began as quite unpredictable, withSally Hawkinsan early serious contender for her wordless performance inShape of Water, as the awards season wore on it became clear this wasFrances McDormand’s to lose. She’s been dominating the awards circuit for the past month, taking home trophy after trophy, and while support for Hawkins orSaoirse Ronancouldresult in a surprise, I don’t really see it happening.
Will Win:Frances McDormand
Could Win:Sally Hawkins
Should Win:Sally Hawkins
Should Have Been Nominated:Gal Gadot -Wonder Woman
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet –Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis –Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya –Get Out
Gary Oldman –Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington –Roman J. Israel, Esq.
The easiest race to predict of the night.Gary Oldmanhas steamrolled this entire thing, and he’ll easily take home his first ever Oscar on Sunday night.
Will Win:Gary Oldman
Could Win:It’s gonna be Gary
Should Win:Timothée Chalamet
Should Have Been Nominated:Jake Gyllenhaal –Stronger
Best Supporting Actress
Mary J. Blige –Mudbound
Allison Janney –I, Tonya
Lesley Manville –Phantom Thread
Laurie Metcalf –Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer –The Shape of Water
Much like the Best Actress race, this one was a squeaker for a while. ThenAllison Janneyjust started winning everything, and unfortunatelyLaurie Metcalf’s chances grew smaller and smaller. That said, the Supporting categories are where surprises usually happen so Metcalf or evenLesley Manvillecould pull off an upset, but given the amount of precursor awards Janney has won it feels unlikely.
Will Win:Allison Janney
Could Win:Laurie Metcalf
Should Win:Laurie Metcalf
Should Have Been Nominated:Allison Williams –Get Out
Best Supporting Actor
Willem Dafoe –The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson –Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins –The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer –All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell –Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Ditto to everything I said about Supporting Actress and Best Actress. It’s clear the actors went gaga forThree Billboards, andSam Rockwellseems to be on a path to winning his first Oscar.
Will Win:Sam Rockwell
Could Win:Christopher Plummer
Should Win:Willem Dafoe
Should Have Been Nominated:Armie Hammer –Call Me by Your Name
Best Original Screenplay
The Big Sick– Emily V. Gordon and Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out– Jordan Peele
Lady Bird– Greta Gerwig
The Shape of Water– Guillermo del Toro and Vanessa Taylor
Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri– Martin McDonagh
Now things get tricky. There are some who thinkGet OutandLady Birdwill somehow cancel each other’s votes, leading to aThree Billboardswin. Others thinkGet OutorLady Birdhas a clear path to victory here. I think it’sverypossible thatThree Billboardstakes this, but since I’m predictingGet Outto win Best Picture, I’m also putting my money on the film scoring in this category as well—much likeMoonlight’s path to victory last year. But if you’re predictingThree Billboardsto take Best Picture, you should probably mark it down here as well.
Could Win:Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri
Should Win:Lady Bird
Should Have Been Nominated:Phantom Thread– Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Adapted Screenplay
Call Me by Your Name– James Ivory
The Disaster Artist– Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan– Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green
Molly’s Game– Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound– Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
This one’s less tricky, although there is the possibility for an upset.Call Me by Your Namewas really the first Oscar contender of 2017, following its debut at Sundance, and while the film’s long trek to Oscar night led to a bit of a loss of steam at the end here re: Best Director and Supporting Actor nominations, Adapted Screenplay is an easy way to recognize a film that a large swath of voters seem to enjoy. Moreover, voters love a good narrative, and 89-year-old writerJames Ivory’s lengthy path to gettingCall Memade is a hell of a story that would be wonderfully capped by an Oscar win.
Will Win:Call Me by Your Name
Could Win:Mudbound
Should Win:Call Me by Your Name
Should Have Been Nominated:The Lost City of Z
Best Animated Feature
The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Loving Vincent
The last time a Pixar movie was nominated for Best Animated Feature and lost was 2006 withCars. So yeah,Cocois safe here.
Will Win:Coco
Could Win:Loving Vincent
Should Win:Coco
Should Have Been Nominated:The LEGO Batman Movie
Best Documentary Feature
Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
Faces Places
Last Men in Aleppo
Strong Island
The timeliness of the Olympics and Russia-focus ofIcaruswill likely vault that film to a win, as well as its availability on Netflix and the lack of Documentary frontrunnersCity of GhostsandJaneon the Oscar shortlist. But there have been plenty of surprises in this category before, so a win forFaces PlaceorLast Men in Aleppoisn’t entirely out of the question.
