The time for final Oscar predictions has come. In truth, this awards season has been unlike any other. For one, the abbreviated timeline has resulted in something of a sprint to the finish line as opposed to the marathon of previous years. There were mere weeks between when nominations were announced and when final ballots were due, and the other precursor ceremonies—BAFTAs, DGA and PGA’s, and even the Golden Globes—fell oddly into the Oscar voting schedule. But for another, there really haven’t been any significant negative campaigns. I’d wager that’s on account of a particularly strong Best Picture lineup, but still, it was a joy to bypass the intense outrage that seems to come with each and every awards season.
But predicting the final winners remains a bit of a pickle, especially after last year’s ceremony.Green Bookshould have been too divisive to win anything big, and yet it took home Best Picture and Best Original Screenplay.Bohemian Rhapsodyhad a majority negative reviews from critics, and yet won four Oscars anyway.
To be honest this somewhat changed my approach this year. I used to be a bit of a statistics hound, but following statistics will only get you so far. Sometimes you just have to go with your gut, and go with my gut I did in a few major categories this year. I’ve done my best to explain my reasoning for each pick, along with my traditional who could win, should win, and should have been nominated for most categories. So let’s dig into these final Oscar predictions and meet back here Sunday to compare notes. Deal?
Best Picture
Will Win:Parasite
Could Win:1917
Should Win:Parasite
Should Have Been Nominated:Knives Out
This category is really down to1917andParasite. Eight of the last nine winners of the PGA award have won Best Picture, which works in1917’s favor. Plus the World War I film has been dominating the buzz cycle in these crucial last couple of weeks having swept the BAFTAs and having won a number of other precursor awards. Only one other film has that kind of buzz and momentum, and that’sParasite. Working inParasite’s favor is the fact thateveryoneseems to love the film, and it took home the SAG award for Best Ensemble—not a reliable predictor of Best Picture success, but an example of wide support within the industry nonetheless. Working againstParasiteis the fact that no foreign language film has ever won Best Picture. But there’s a first time for everything.
And in truth, a win for1917orParasitewould be historic. Neither film has any acting nominations, nor does1917have a Best Editing nomination. There’s a slim chance that something likeJokerorOnce Upon a Time in Hollywoodor evenJojo Rabbitmight pull off a major upset (and I meanmajorupset), but the stats point to1917and my gut tells meParasitehas serious momentum. Will it go all the way? I’m not so certain. The safe bet is to pick1917here. But safe is boring.
Best Director
Will Win: Sam Mendes –1917
Could Win: Bong Joon-ho -Parasite
Should Win: Bong Joon-ho -Parasite
Should Have Been Nominated: Greta Gerwig -Little Women
This one is pretty sewn up. You have to go back to 2012 to find the last time the DGA winner didn’t match up with the Best Director Oscar winner, and that was only becauseBen Affleckwasn’t nominated for the Oscar. The DGA isthemost reliable predictor of Oscar success, so you’d be foolish not to go with the DGA winner here, which in this case isSam Mendesfor1917. But beyond the stat, if you look at what kinds of directors the Academy has been choosing for this award lately, it’s almost always for a stunning technical achievement.Alejandro G. IñarrituforBirdmanandThe Revenant;Alfonso CuaronforGravity;Ang LeeforLife of Pi;Damien ChazelleforLa La Land. By that metric, Mendes just makes sense. There’s a voice in the back of my head that says the Bonghive could very well assemble, so I wouldn’t beentirelyshocked ifBong Joon-hotook the stage instead. But everything’s pointing towards Mendes here.
Best Actor
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix –Joker
Could Win: Antonio Banderas –Pain and Glory
Should Win: Adam Driver –Marriage Story
Should Have Been Nominated: Song Kang-ho –Parasite
So the acting categories are pretty boring this year. All four frontrunners have run the table, to the point that there is averyslim chance of anyone else winning in any of these acting categories. The most locked isJoaquin PhoenixforJoker. The Academy loves a “big” performance, despite the fact that the subtle devastation ofAdam DriverinMarriage Storywas actually the best performance of the year.
Best Actress
Will Win: Renee Zellweger –Judy
Could Win: Charlize Theron –Bombshell
Should Win: Scarlett Johansson –Marriage Story
Should Have Been Nominated: Lupita Nyong’o –Us
Best Actress is also pretty much a lock, asRenee Zellwegerhas had this in the bag since September for her genuinely stirring portrayal of Judy Garland inJudy. This will be her second Oscar win, and you know what? Despite the fact that it’s a very Oscar-y win, her performance is genuinely great. Hard to be mad at this one.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Brad Pitt –Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Could Win: Joe Pesci –The Irishman
Should Win: Al Pacino –The Irishman
Should Have Been Nominated: Rob Morgan –Just Mercy
Brad Pittis well on his way to winning his first ever acting Oscar. He has two Best Picture Oscars as producer on12 Years a SlaveandMoonlight, but he’s been dominating the Best Supporting Actor awards all season and has been killing those acceptance speeches. He’ll almost certainly take the stage on Sunday night.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Laura Dern –Marriage Story
Could Win: Margot Robbie –Bombshell
Should Win: Laura Dern –Marriage Story
Should Have Been Nominated: Cho Yeo-jeong –Parasite
Laura Dernfor the win. And it’s hard to argue with that.
Best Original Screenplay
Should Win:Knives Out
Should Have Been Nominated:The Farewell
This is a tricky one. You could argueQuentin Tarantinomight take it forOnce Upon a Time in Hollywood, and he was once the frontrunner to win, but momentum hasn’t been on his side.Parasitewon with the WGA Awards, for whichHollywoodwasn’t eligible, but it also won at the BAFTAs going head to head withHollywood. The Best Original Screenplay category is something of a “cool kids table” where films likeGet OutandHerget recognized, and to that end I think even those not voting forParasitefor Best Picture will want to award it here. There’s the possibility that if1917is just a full-on sweep it could win, but I’m going withParasiteto go hand-in-hand with my prediction for it to win Best Picture as well.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win:Jojo Rabbit
Could Win:Joker
Should Win:Little Women
Should Have Been Nominated:Avengers: Endgame
This one is basically a toss-up betweenJojo RabbitandJokerfor me, even though I thinkLittle Womenis actually most deserving.Jojo Rabbithas the momentum having won the WGA and BAFTA trophies for this category, and there is significant love for this movie within the industry. I think this is where most voters will find it appropriate to award this particular film, although I could also see a scenario in whichJokerpulls off a win as well. The DC adaptation is a “serious” comic book movie and is seen by many in the industry as a way around Hollywood’s blockbuster obsession at the moment, even ifJokerdoesn’t really contain much more thematic depth than aFast and Furiousmovie.
Best Animated Feature Film
Will Win:Toy Story 4
Could Win:Klaus
Should Win:I Lost My Body
Should Have Been Nominated:Abominable
Best Animated Feature is a weird race this year.KlausandMissing Linkhave been surprising with wins for the precursor awards, but the statistics heavily favor a Disney/Pixar movie in this category. And while I absolutely could be wrong, I’m going to bet most people will instinctively pickToy Story 4here.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win:American Factory
Could Win:For Sama
Should Win:American Factory
Should Have Been Nominated:David Crosby: Remember My Name
Another weird race, especially because the frontrunner to win—Apollo 11—wasn’t even nominated. Traditionally voters pick the most “feel-good” movie here, and for that reason (and because it’s easily available on Netflix) I’m going withAmerican Factory. It’s an excellent, fascinating story about how labor works in two very different cultures.
