The early box office tracking forRogue One: A Star Wars Storyis in, and it is very good news for Lucasfilm. Before we get too deep, however, it’s important to note that tracking is A. Incredibly imprecise, B. Just a starting point, and C. Incredibly imprecise. In recent years box office tracking has become less reliable as films likeDeadpoolopened to $50 million higher than expected, but it can also sometimes be on the nose, as withFantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them. So as we proceed, keep in mind this is an early number that could change wildly by the time we hit opening weekend.
But yeah, the early tracking forRogue One’s opening weekend box office is high. PerTHR, the film is expected to hit at least $130 million domestic in its opening weekend on December 16th, with some tracking services even pegging the total as high as $150 million. That would be a phenomenal start for Lucasfilm’s first everStar Warsspinoff, and would mark the second biggest December opening weekend ever—behindStar Wars: The Force Awakens.
Indeed,Force Awakensdefied the odds when it scored $248 million in its opening weekend, which is not just the biggest opening weekend of all time, but a December record as no film previously had ever cracked $100 million during the final month of the year. Of course,Force Awakenshad the benefit of the return of Han Solo and a proper sequel toReturn of the JediwhileRogue Oneis a prequel spinoff and a beast of a different sort, so no one was expectingGareth Edwards' film to come close to that $248 million number.
Just as they did last year withForce Awakens, Lucasfilm has been trying to manage expectations with regards toRogue One, playing up the fact that this isnota traditionalStar Warsmovie, and thus is a riskier gamble. IfRogue Onesucceeds and hits these kinds of box office numbers, Lucasfilm will no doubt feel more assured in proceeding with its standaloneStar Warsmovies, as they already havea Young Han Solo spinoffscheduled to begin filming in February.
WhenJ.J. AbramsandKathleen Kennedylobbied Disney to push the release ofForce Awakensback from May 2015 to December, they brokeStar Warstradition and led many to believe the film couldn’t soar as high as big summer blockbusters. However, nostalgia combined with positive audience response and brand recognition madeForce Awakensa force to be reckoned with over the holiday season, as families came together and saw the newStar Warsfilm over and over again throughout December and January. Lucasfilm has already pushedEpisode VIIIto December 2017, and ifRogue Onehits as big as it’s expected to, it makes sense for Lucasfilm and Disney tolean into this new traditionof families going out to see the latestStar Warsmovie over the Christmas holiday.
One thing’s for sure—unlessRogue Onereally falters, it’ll easily surpassThe Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey’s $84 million opening to land the second highest December opening weekend of all time. If it cracks $160 million, that’s enough to put it in the Top 10 opening weekends of all time period, but again, tracking can be imprecise and you’re able to bet Disney and Lucasfilm will be doing their best over the next month to lower expectations.
So yeah, it looks likeRogue Oneis going to start strong. The true test will be if the film is actually good. If audiences and critics respond kindly, we can probably expect similar legs toThe Force Awakensand a healthy domestic total once all is said and done.
