For a while there it looked likeThe Martianmight set a new opening record for October, but as of this morningGravityremains the box office champ. Fox is reporting thatThe Martianearned an estimated $55 million in its first three days – a bit lower than the $55.78 millionGravityclaimed on this same weekend in 2013. But before we get too comfortable with this outcome, the obvious must be stated: less than $1 million separatesThe Martian’s estimate andGravity’s record. Their places could easily be reversed when actual earnings are announced on Monday.
When box office numbers are this close, especially when a record is on the line, it’s always good to remember the difference between ‘studio estimates’ and actual grosses. Studio estimates are released on Sunday morning – before most tickets for the weekend’s final day have been sold. Actual grosses are just that: the final word on box office earnings. So why not wait until Monday to cover the box office? Honestly, it’s because studio estimates are more often right than wrong. Even a $500,000 differential between an estimate and an actual is typically not enough to alter the essential conclusions of a weekend box office report. Naturally, there are always exceptions. This summer gave ustwo very prominent box office retractionsconcerningJurassic WorldandInside Out, and both concerned all-time records.
Assuming that theGravityrecord will stand, what does that mean forThe Martian? Not much, really. DirectorRidley Scott’s space epic is already a box office success – especially considering the giant shadow thatGravitycast over its release. A hit with both audiences (A- CinemaScore) and critics (97% on Rotten Tomatoes),Gravitywent on to earn $274 million in North America and $723 million worldwide. With that success in mind, most projections hadThe Martianopening with $50 million. New record or not, the fact that The Martian topped expectations is great news for Fox, especially following their disastrousFantastic Fourreboot this summer.
Of course, Fox did its best to ensure a positive outcome forThe Martian: uppingGravity’s theatre count from 3,575 to 3,831, with at least two-thirds of all venues screening the film in 3D.The Martianalso claimed a higher CinemaScore thanGravity(A vs. A-), though whether that will be enough to propel the film to a comparable domestic total remains to be seen. Adding estimates from this weekend’s 49 international markets,The Martiancurrently holds a worldwide total of just over $100 million.
WhileThe Martianfell just short of a box office record, the weekend’s other new release fell just short of the top ten. Sony/TriStar’sThe Walk, from directorRobert Zemeckis, earned an estimated $1.5 million from its limited run in 448 IMAX and premium large format venues. StarringJoseph Gordon-Levittas Phillippe Petit, the high wire artist featured in 2008’s Oscar Winning documentaryMan on Wire, the film opened on Wednesday but garnered little attention thanks to an underwhelming $240,379 debut. Over its first five days,The Walkearned an estimated $1.9 million. That’s less than Universal’sEverestmade on the first day of its own limited IMAX/PLF launch three weeks ago.
The Walkwill hit theatres nationwide next weekend, along withPan, the Warner Bros. fantasy that was originally scheduled for July. At this point if eitherThe WalkorPanmakes it to $20 million I would be surprised, which leaves a lot of room forThe Martianto claim a second frame at number one. Back in 2013,Gravitysaw a drop of just 23% in its sophomore frame. DidThe Martiancreate enough buzz to end up with a similar hold? We’ll see. In the meantime, check out our otherpredictions for October here.
Here’s this weekend’s topelevenfilms (it seemed mean to cutThe Walkout of the chart altogether).
The Martian
$55,000,000
Hotel Transylvania 2
$33,000,000
$12,075,000
The Intern
$11,620,000
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials
$7,650,000
Black Mass
$5,905,000
$5,510,000
$3,950,000
$2,800,000
The Perfect Guy
$2,400,000
$1,550,000
