The 2016 Sundance Film Festival has come to a close, but we haven’t heard the last from the various independent films that made their debuts in the snowy mountains of Park City. While some are destined for VOD consumption, others will get a splashy showcase on the big screen and, just maybe, some awards season accolades. Indeed, Sundance served as the soft launching pad for future Best Picture nominees likeLittle Miss Sunshineand this year’sBrooklyn, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility for one or more of this year’s movies to go on to Oscar glory. But which ones?
Having seen many of the biggest debuts at Sundance 2016, I’m prepared to take a look at a few choice titles that may go on to become Oscar contenders later this year.
We begin, obviously, withThe Birth of a Nation. The slavery drama garnered the biggest buzz of the festival, setting an acquisition record with Fox Searchlight’s $17.5 million purchase. Writer/director/starNate Parker’s passion project is a dramatic account of the life of Nat Turner, a slave and preacher who led a bloody rebellion that recruited and freed a number of slaves before Turner’s eventual capture and execution.
It’s hard to look at this film andnotthink about accolades. While I found it a bit messy and rough around the edges in terms of structure and character, it will no doubt be part of the awards conversation later this year, and it’s no coincidence that Fox Searchlight landed the distribution rights. They know how to lead an Oscar campaign, and having shepherded12 Years a Slaveto a Best Picture win, they know how to handle this kind of movie. GrantedBirth of a Nationis a bit of a tougher sell as it’s a different kind of slave story, but in the wake of #OscarsSoWhite there’s no denying this movie will be on everyone’s radar.
Parker could pull aBraveheart-like run when it comes awards time, or voters could decide the film simply isn’t for them. It’s too early to predict exactlyhowthis release will be received, but it’s not too early to sayBirth of a Nationwill absolutely be part of the Oscar conversation in a number of the major categories, although its lack of three-dimensional supporting roles likely limits the acting recognition to Parker’s leading turn as Nat Turner.
The other major contender out of Sundance isManchester by the Sea, the masterful character drama fromYou Can Count on MefilmmakerKenneth Lonergan. It is a devastating, profoundly human portrait of grief that features a career-best turn fromCasey Affleck, who is astounding in the lead role of a man who must return home to care for his teenaged nephew when his brother suddenly dies. Performance-wise,Michelle Williamsalso does wonders with limited screentime, and if there’s any justice she’ll be towards the top of every Supporting Actress list come December. Elsewhere, the film deserves recognition for Best Picture, Director, Actor and Original Screenplay. It’s one of the best films I’ve seen in a very long time, and is no doubt destined for universal critical acclaim.
The only issue that gives me pause is the fact that the film went to Amazon as distributor, which has no experience in running Oscar campaigns. Indeed the studio has found success on the small screen withTransparent, but Hollywood remains skeptical of the streaming world overall, so I’ll be curious to see exactly how the release and awards campaign of the film pans out. In a perfect world the quality of the film and its performances would be the only thing that matters, but when it comes to Oscar, there’s a lot riding on the campaign itself.
BeyondBirth of a NationandManchester by the Sea, there are also other films and performances worth singling out.Craig Robinsonwon a Sundance awardfor his turn in the coming-of-age comedy/dramaMorris from America, in which he plays a single father raising his son abroad in Germany. Robinson shows tremendous range in the role, and with the right campaign (A24 scooped up distribution rights), he could—and should—be in the Oscar conversation for Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor. His delivery of a key monologue alone is Oscar-worthy, and this is the awards contender I’m most eager to see pan out from this year’s festival.
There’s also former Focus Features CEOJames Schamus’ directorial debutIndignation, which is an early contender for Best Adapted Screenplay for Schamus’ adaptation of thePhilip Rothnovel of the same name. I’d also throwLogan Lermaninto the Best Actor conversation for his dynamic turn as a precocious college freshman in 1951, andTracy Lettsmakes a strong case for a Best Supporting Actor nod as the school’s contentious yet charismatic dean.
The crowd-pleasing musicalSing Streetshould have a serious shot at running rampant over the Best Original Song category,Tika Sumpteris devine as Michelle Obama inSouthside withYou,andMolly Shannonturns in a terrific performance as a mother dying of cancer in the autobiographical dramedyOther People. And if I had a vote, I’d put my weight behindDan KwanandDaniel Scheinertfor Best Director consideration for the divisiveSwiss Army Man. But a film so reliant on fart jokes is unlikely to make a blip on the Academy’s radar.
Sundance is also always home to at least one or two of the eventual Best Documentary Feature Oscar nominees, and I doubt this year will be any different. TheAnthony WeinerdocWeinertook home the festival’s top award, so that’s one to keep on your radar, but I’ll be shocked if I see a better documentary than the utterly devastatingNewtown. The film chronicles the Sandy Hook tragedy from the point of view of the families involved and the community as a whole, making it all the more effective. It is, without doubt, essential viewing, and given the right push could land on plenty of year-end Top 10 lists.Norman Lear: Just Another Version of You, the gun control docUnder the Gun, the cult documentaryHoly Hell, and the sexual assault documentaryAudrie & Daisyare notable as well. As always the documentary category was an embarrassment of riches, so we’ll have to see which of these docs make the long haul to the end of the year.
So as you can see, this year’s Sundance was not lacking in quality. The question then becomes a matter of release strategy, campaign strength, and pure luck in terms of which films and performances manage to stand out at the end of the year.Fruitvale Stationhad tons of momentum coming out of Sundance, but got lost in the shuffle thanks to an August release date, so quality doesn’t necessarily guarantee awards success. That said, I’d be shocked ifBirth of a NationandManchester by the Seadon’t make a bit of a splash.
But I’m getting ahead of myself. We’ve got to finishthisyear’s Oscars first. Look for final countdown coverage from yours truly in more Oscar Beat columns over the next couple of weeks.
To catch up on all of our Sundance 2016 coverage, including reviews and interviews,click here.
